"The year 2000 is closer to us in time than the great depression, yet the world's economists, traumatized by that historic disaster, remain frozen in the attitudes of the past. Economists, even those who talk the language of revolution, are peculiarly conservative creatures. If it were possible to pry from their brains their collective image of the economy of, say, the year 2025, it would look very much like that on 1970 - only more so.
Conditioned to think in straight lines, economists have great
difficulty imagining alternatives to communism and capitalism. They
see in the growth of large-scale organization nothing more than a
linear expansion of old-fashioned bureaucracy. They see
technological advance as a simple, non-revolutionary extension of the
known. Born of scarcity, trained to think in terms of limited
resources, they can hardly conceive of a society in which man's basic
material wants have been satisfied.
One reason for their lack of imagination is that when they think
about technological advance, they concentrate solely on the MEANS of
economic activity. Yet, the super-industrial revolution challenges
the ENDS as well. It threatens to alter not mereley the
"how" of production but they "why". It will, in
short, transform the very purposes of economic activity.
Before such an upheaval, even the most sophisticated tools of
today's economists are helpless. Input-output tables, econometric
models - the whole paraphernalia of analysis that economists employ
simply do not come to grips with the external forces - political,
social and ethical - that will transform economic life in the decades
before us. What does "productivity" or
"efficiency" mean in a society that places a high value on
psychic fulfillment? What happens to an economy when, as is likely,
the entire concept of property is reduced to meaninglessness? How
are economies likely to be affected by the rise of supra-national
planning, taxing and regulatory agencies or by a kind of dialectical
return to "cottage industry" based on the most advanced
cybernetic technologies? Most important, what happens when "no
growth" replaces "growth" as an economic objective,
when GNP ceases to be the holy grail?
Only by stepping outside the framework of orthodox economic
thought and examining these possibilities can we begin to perpare for
tomorrow. And among these, none is more central than the shift in
values that is likely to accompany the super-industrial revolution.
Under conditions of scarcity, men struggle to meet their
immediate material needs. Today under more affluent conditions, we
are reorganizing the economy to deal with a new level of human needs.
From a system designed to provide material satisfaction, we are
rapidly creating an economy geared to the provision of pyschic
gratification. This process of "psychologization," one of
the central themes of the super-industrial revolution, has been all
but overlooked by the economists. Tet it will result in a novel,
surprise-filled economy unlike any man has ever experienced. The
issues raised by it will reduce the great conflict of the twentieth
century, the conflict between capitalism and communism, to
comparative insignificance. For those issues sweep far beyond
economic or political dogma. They involve, as we shall see, nothing
less than sanity, the human organism's ability to distinguish
illusion from reality."
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